Kenya 2025: Two-Wheeler Sales Drop 5.5% in First Quarter
Another Blow for Kenya’s Motorcycle Market in 2025
Kenyas two wheeler market is reeling once another time. After a shaky 2024 the first quarter of 2025 has continued the downward trend through a 5.5% fall in motorcycle and scooter sales according to new data from production predictors. For a sector once hailed as the backbone of Kenya’s urban mobility boom this ongoing slump raises serious questions.
In this report we investigate the factors behind the Q1 decline observe the urban vs. rural sales split compare regional market dynamics and explore how key players like Bajaj and TVS are adapting to the pressure.
Kenya Two Wheeler Market 2025 Q1 Overview
Decline Stats: -5.5% Market Drop
The Kenyan motorcycle manufacturing in Q1 2025 registered a year on year sales decline of 5.5% marking the third consecutive quarter of negative development. From commuter bikes in Nairobi to scooters in Mombasa volume contraction was seen across equally urban and rural segments.
Data Snapshot:
- Total Q1 2025 Units Sold: ~47,200 (vs ~49,950 in Q1 2024)
- Leading Brands: Bajaj (down 4.8%)TVS (down 6.2%) Honda (down 7.1%)
- Top Urban Markets Affected: Nairobi Eldoret And Kisumu
What is Driving the TwoWheeler Decline in Kenya?
1. Economic Pressures And Rising Costs
Inflation greater fuel prices and tighter lending standards have made motorcycles less accessible. Many Kenyans mainly in peri urban areas are postponing purchases or relying on second hand imports.
2 Regulatory Clamps
The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) introduced stricter registration and safety compliance standards in early 2025 discouraging fresh entrants and dealers from increasing their fleets.
3. Urban Shift to Electric Mobility
Cities such as Nairobi and Kisumu are gradually shifting focus toward Electric Mobility startups, proposing ride sharing and delivery options that bypass Traditional fuel powered bikes.
Brand Performance: Who Lost the Most?
Bajaj Still Leading, But Sliding
Despite left over the Market leader Bajaj Auto saw a 4.8% dip in Q1 sales particularly in Western Kenya.
TVS Urban Struggles
TVS suffered a 6.2% fall with Nairobi and Eldoret showing reduced demand amid Traffic policy shifts.
Honda & Hero Losing to Used Imports
Honda and Hero struggled through dealer inventory challenges as buyers opted for cheaper used Japanese Imports.
Used Motorcycle Imports: +9.1% Surge
Parallel imports since Japan, India, and China spiked as consumers sought cheaper alternatives exacerbating the formal markets woes.
Kenya in the East African Context
While Kenya saw a Q1 drop Uganda and Tanzania experienced slight Development in their corresponding two wheeler markets due to stable regulations and tax incentives.
East Africa Q1 2025 Comparison:
| Country | Growth Rate | Main Factor |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | -5.5% | Regulatory & cost pressure |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | +3.1% | Fuel subsidies |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | +1.9% | Tax relief for bike imports |
Urban vs. Rural Breakdown
Urban markets like Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu faced a steeper decline due to:
- Traffic regulation enforcement
- Influx of ride hailing bikes lowering individual demand
- Noise and emissions concerns
Rural regions, however, held steadier through boda boda operators in Machakos Nakuru, and Bungoma still driving demand.
Kenya’s Motorcycle Sales Forecast 2025
If the current trajectory holds, the Kenyan bike market is on track to shrink by 6–8% in 2025, unless the government intervenes with subsidies or tax breaks.
Short-Term Forecast:
- Q2 Outlook: Slight recovery if fuel prices stabilize
- Full-Year Projection: ~188,000 units (down from 2024’s 202,000)
Final Thoughts: What’s Next for Kenya’s Two-Wheeler Sector?
The Kenyan motorcycle markets Q1 2025 performance is a wake up call. While macroeconomic and regulatory hurdles persist innovations in electric mobility, policy reform, and dealered financing models may help reverse the trend.
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