Raila Alliance
In a dramatic escalation of Kenya’s political tensions the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has erupted in fury over a series of alleged state linked killings incidents that now threaten to unravel the fragile power pact between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Why ODM Is Angry Over Recent State Killings
ODM, Kenya’s largest opposition party, has publicly condemned the recent wave of what it terms “political assassinations,” accusing Government linked security agencies of orchestrating targeted eliminations. The killing of youth activist Albert Ojwang in Homa Bay has especially triggered outrage, with party leaders pointing fingers at rogue state operatives bent on silencing dissent.
“These are not casual crimes. They are systematic attacks on voices of change,” said Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. “We will not stay silent as our publics are slaughtered.”
Victims of the Crisis (Updated June 2025):
- Albert Ojwang ODM youth mobilizer, killed in Homa Bay
- Peter Okello community activist in Kisumu, found dead in mysterious circumstances
- Unnamed protester shot during a demonstration in Siaya
These deaths have jolted ODM’s grassroots base, particularly in its Nyanza strongholds, sparking protests in Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Migori.
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How State-Linked Murders Are Hurting the Ruto-Raila Pact
The Ruto-Raila détente, born out of the 2023 bipartisan dialogue and handshake-style agreement, now stands on shaky ground. ODM insiders say the truce was conditional: a promise to end extrajudicial killings and uphold democratic freedoms.
“The handshake was not a blank cheque. Ruto must act on rogue officers or forget our cooperation,” warned Siaya Governor James Orengo.
ODM’s trust in the UDA-led Government is waning, with increasing calls to terminate their informal power-sharing agreement if the killings persist.
Political Fallout: ODM Threatens to Quit Alliance
- ODM leaders are demanding a full public analysis into the killings.
- Street protests are scheduled in Kisumu, Nairobi, and Homa Bay.
- Backchannel communications between Raila and Ruto have in fact gone cold.
There is growing speculation that ODM may formally sever ties with Ruto’s administration ahead of the 2025 general election realignments.
ODM’s Demands:
- Immediate suspension of implicated security chiefs
- Parliamentary investigation into extrajudicial killings
- Implementation of the Bomas report on police reform
Who Is Behind the State-Linked Killings in Kenya?
While no official confirmation has been made, multiple human rights groups, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty Kenya, have cited a troubling increase in enforced disappearances and killings linked to state agents.
Reports and Evidence:
- A June 2025 HRW report highlights “a resurgence in political violence reminiscent of the 2007-08 crisis.”
- CCTV footage from Homa Bay allegedly shows police officers in unmarked vehicles tailing Ojwang before his abduction.
Security experts warn that Kenya may be regressing into a period of politically motivated state terror, despite the promise of democratic renewal after the Ruto-Raila handshake.
What Next for Ruto and Raila After ODM Backlash?
The big question now: Can the Ruto-Raila pact survive this storm? Political analysts suggest three possible scenarios:
| Scenario | Likelihood | Impact |
| ODM walks out of the pact | High | Major 2025 realignment |
| Ruto acts on ODM demands | Medium | Pact temporarily saved |
| Raila softens stance under pressure | Low | Risks grassroots backlash |
UDA insiders fear the backlash could boost Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s influence, who has often criticized the Raila alliance as a liability to Kenya Kwanza’s Mt. Kenya base.
ODM Fury Across the Regions
| County | ODM Action | Local Sentiment |
| Kisumu | Protests planned | Outrage and mobilization |
| Siaya | Governor’s ultimatum to Ruto | Demands justice |
| Nairobi | ODM presser at Orange House | National concern |
| Homa Bay | Mourning rallies | Calls for Raila to act |
The heat is also being felt in Rift Valley and Mount Kenya, where UDA leaders now want Ruto to distance himself from the ODM pact.
Expert Insight: Fragility of Kenya’s Bipartisan Politics
Dr. Mercy Nyang’aya, a governance analyst, says:
“This isn’t just about ODM. It’s a test of Kenya’s commitment to post-handshake governance. If the state cannot prevent or punish political killings, no alliance is safe.”
Interactive: Watch This Breakdown of the Ruto-Raila Fallout
[YouTube Embed: “How the Ruto-Raila Alliance Is Unraveling” – Political Roundtable Kenya]
Call to Action
How do you think the government should respond to ODM’s demands?