Agriculture experts caution that President Tinubu’s directive to crash food prices may backfire unless Nigeria addresses high production costs insecurity and import dependency Rising food import bills poor infrastructure and lack of reforms threaten farmers and food sovereignty .
Experts Warn on Tinubu’s Food Prices Directive
Context The Presidential Order
President Bola Tinubu has directed the Federal Executive Council to adopt urgent measures aimed at reducing food prices across Nigeria The order includes setting up a committee to explore interventions with particular focus on ensuring the safe and unhindered movement of agricultural produce The directive is also tied to a wider food sovereignty agenda which goes beyond food availability to include accessibility affordability nutrition and sustainability .
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Expert Reactions Opportunities Versus Risks
While some observers welcome the plan as a way to give immediate relief to consumers many agriculture experts and farmers are worried They argue that without tackling the deep issues that drive prices up the policy could damage farming and worsen food shortages .
Their main concerns focus on four areas Farmers already face high costs for seeds fertiliser and other inputs If they are asked to sell at lower prices without support their profits will vanish Poor roads weak storage facilities and transport bottlenecks raise costs and cause food spoilage Insecurity across farming regions limits production and disrupts supply chains And reliance on imports could worsen if local farmers cannot compete which would weaken domestic agriculture .
Data Snapshot Import Bills and Trade Trends
Nigeria’s food import bill in the second quarter of 2025 was more than one point one trillion naira compared to less than nine hundred billion naira in the same period of 2024 This represents a jump of about one third Within 2025 alone food imports rose by more than ten percent from the first to the second quarter Food imports now make up about eight percent of all imports Total imports for the quarter reached more than fifteen trillion naira while overall trade stood at nearly twenty three trillion naira These rising bills show both the cost pressure on the economy and the fragility of local food systems .
Sectoral Voices What Farmers Say
Leaders in the farming sector have openly warned against pushing prices down without support The president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria Arch Kabir Ibrahim said that sustainable pricing based on real costs is the only way forward He explained that if farmers cannot cover costs they will leave the fields The managing director of BIC Farms Concepts Adebowale Onafowora added that input costs bad infrastructure insecurity and transport spoilage are already choking farmers Forcing prices lower would cut supply and may cause higher prices in the future The National Tomato Growers Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria through its representative Sani Danladi gave examples showing the strain Farmers are selling a bag of paddy rice for forty thousand naira fresh maize for thirty thousand and a large bag of onions for twelve thousand He warned that many farmers are already struggling and further pressure could drive them out of business .
Proposed Measures and Recommendations
Experts agree that real solutions must target the root causes They call for reducing input costs by producing fertiliser and improved seeds locally and offering subsidies They stress the need to improve infrastructure such as roads storage and transport to make movement of produce cheaper and safer Security in farming regions must be improved so that production and distribution are not constantly at risk Value addition and local processing should be encouraged to reduce waste and increase competitiveness They also recommend policy reforms that expand credit access support farmer cooperatives and introduce pricing systems that reflect production costs rather than blanket price caps .
Conclusion Balancing Relief and Sustainability
The drive to reduce food prices shows the government’s concern for households burdened by high inflation Yet experts warn that the order could discourage farmers and shrink local supply if it is not matched with real reforms Short term relief without systemic change may lead to even higher costs and deeper dependency on imports Sustainable affordability will only come from a balance between consumer needs and farmer viability The challenge before the government is to make food affordable without crippling the very farmers who produce it and to turn the directive into part of a long term strategy for food security and agricultural growth .