Former US President Donald Trump announced on May 10 2025 that India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire along the Line of Control LoC in Kashmir
The agreement followed weeks of intense violence sparked by a terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22 that killed 26 civilians India had accused a Pakistan based militant group Lashkar e Taiba of orchestrating the attack while Islamabad disavowed any direct involvement.
Today’s announcement signals a significant diplomatic achievement facilitated by Trump Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio with assistance from the UK Saudi Arabia and China.
Pakistan’s Response Relief and Optimism
Pakistani officials responded with relief airspace previously closed is now reopened commerce is restarting and a hotline between military commands is active.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump and US diplomats for their role calling the ceasefire a new beginning aimed at resolving Kashmir and water disputes.
Former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari praised the ceasefire but cautioned that the threshold for war is now lower than ever warning that any future terrorist incident could He pressed for broader dialogue and diplomacy beyond mere cessation of fire notably on issues like the Indus Waters Treaty and terror control.
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Crack in the Truce Cross Border Skirmishes
Despite the formal ceasefire gunfire resumed on May 10 shelling in Bhimber explosions in Srinagar and Jammu and a drone incursion over Peshawar.
India accused Pakistan of ceasefire violations including missile strikes near its airbases while Pakistan alleged India targeted civilians.
Though casualties were low the clashes underscored the fragile nature of the truce.
Trump’s Kashmir Pitch Mediation and Trade
Alongside brokering the ceasefire Trump made an unprecedented offer to mediate the Kashmir dispute breaking with US tradition of non intervention He said he would be happy to arbitrate or facilitate a resolution but only if both sides want it.
Pakistani PM Imran Khan in Washington just days earlier welcomed Trump’s potential role Khan argued that bilateral talks had failed after decades of stalemate and said the prayers of over a billion people would be with Trump if he could help.
Trump also offered to enhance US trade ties with both Pakistan and India calling Pakistanis smart and tough and praising Pakistan’s role in a potential regional peace.
India’s Reaction Caution and Rebuff
India welcomed the ceasefire but firmly rejected any third party mediation insisting Kashmir remains strictly a bilateral issue.
New Delhi contended that past agreements including the Simla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration mandate direct talks without external involvement.
Indian officials expressed concern that Trump’s public remarks potentially embarrassed Prime Minister Modi and complicated his stance The military maintained readiness in case of renewed violations underscoring continued tensions at the border.
The Political Stakes Domestic Gains and Regional Geopolitics
Both Islamabad and New Delhi have framed the ceasefire as a national victory Pakistan saw a morale boost after hosting Trump’s mediation offer India projected military strength through its missile strikes
Analysts warn that unless adversarial narratives and deep mistrust are addressed the truce may be tenuous Yale’s Sushant Singh noted that Pakistan sees a win in nuclear deterrence and diplomacy while India views it as affirmation of its assertive military stance US and Chinese involvement adds a strategic complexity as both superpowers jockey for influence in South Asia.
Road Ahead Dialogue or Deadlock
Can Mediation Bring Peace
Trump’s offer to mediate is historic yet it hinges entirely on both India’s and Pakistan’s willingness India’s firm refusal makes immediate US facilitation unlikely.
Pakistan hopeful but realistic is pushing for international oversight over terrorism and water disputes It proposes neutral site talks echoing Trump’s suggestions.
Will Ceasefire Hold
While the fighting has paused pockets of violence persist Experts say sustained diplomacy is the only path to keeping tensions from reigniting into full scale war.
Domestic pressures public outrage in India after Pahalgam nationalist sentiment in Pakistan could sway both governments back toward confrontation.
Trade as Peace Dividend
Trump emphasized dramatic increases in US Pakistan and US India trade aligning economic incentives with peace
Whether this economic carrot can temper military posturing remains to be seen.
Conclusion
The ceasefire brokered by Trump on May 10 2025 offers a flicker of hope amid decades of deadly conflict in Kashmir With Pakistan jubilant India cautious and both sides united in wariness of a full scale confrontation the situation remains precarious.
Trump’s offer to mediate represents an unusual pivot in American diplomacy but without India’s cooperation it may stand as a gesture rather than a turning point The real test lies in whether both nations can move toward sustained dialogue trust building and cooperation leveraging diplomacy economics and international support to transform a fragile ceasefire into lasting peace.