Introduction: The Threat Beneath the Waves
Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have reached a critical level marked by military buildup in the Caribbean and series of U.S. airstrikes against vessels allegedly linked to drug cartels. While the presence of US Warships like the USS Gerald R. Ford signals huge conventional power Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is reportedly betting on a desperate unconventional defense Guerrilla Style Defense designed to turn a potential invasion into a nationa ltrial.
According to a detailed Reuters report and analysis from security experts, Venezuela’s counterstrategy is built on creating chaos plan described by former U.S. National Intelligence Officer Fulton Armstrong as unleashing “Swarm of Bees” upon any occupying force. But can a weakened military with decades old Russian-made weapons truly resist the might of a superpower? This article dives deep into the two-pronged defense strategy that could redefine the meaning of success in a modern conflict.
The Dual Strategy: Prolonged Resistance and Anarchization
Maduro’s government is preparing to counter an invasion an effort he sees as an attempt to overthrow governments / remove Maduro by deploying two complementary strategies that exploit the nation’s rugged terrain and its political military structure.
1. Prolonged Resistance Campaign
This is the classic Guerrilla Style Defense. Instead of engaging the superior U.S. forces in a conventional, open fight which many insiders admit would result in total destruction this plan focuses on decentralized warfare:
- Small Military Units: Regular troops would disperse into small, mobile platoons across over 280 strategic locations.
- Tactics: The objective is to wage sabotage and street unrest through ambushes, sniper attacks, and disruptions of supply lines, making the occupation logistically impossible.
- Assets: These units would rely on old equipment and light weaponry, including an estimated 5,000 Russian-made Igla S portable anti-air missiles deployed across the territory.
2. The ‘Anarchization’ Plan
The second perhaps more dangerous strategy is focused on urban warfare specifically designed to make the capital of Caracas ungovernable.
- Objective: Create systemic disorder and chaos throughout major cities.
- Forces: This plan relies heavily on armed supporters, the expanded Bolivarian Militia, and intelligence services to foment internal disorder.
- Outcome: The goal is not military victory but political paralysis. The strategy seeks to undermine any interim government or “puppets” the U.S. might attempt to install driving up the political and human cost for Washington.
Expert Analysis: Why the ‘Swarm of Bees’ Metaphor Sticks
Fulton Armstrong professor and former intelligence official provides the chilling analogy arguing that U.S. forces will “feel a swarm of bees when they leave their little safe zones.”
He clarifies that Venezuela’s success is defined purely on its own terms: not winning a conventional war, but surviving an invasion long enough to inflict unacceptable costs.
Quote from Expert: “Venezuelans will indeed mount a clever campaign of sabotage, sniper attacks, and political operations to undermine the U.S. military.. An attack by the U.S. would likely fuel enough pockets of nationalistic fervor that either U.S. forces or pro U.S. forces are going to feel a swarm of bees.”
This view underscores key strategic insight a foreign potential U.S. attack will likely unite citizens under the banner of nationalistic fervor against the perceived “imperialist threat,” creating ready pool of fighters for the guerrilla effort.
Military Reality: Weakened Force Preparing for the Asymmetric War
Venezuela’s reliance on these unconventional strategies is a tacit acknowledgment of its conventional weaknesses, creating long odds of success against the U.S. military.
| Challenge | Detail | Impact on Conflict |
| Old Equipment | Relying on decades-old Russian-made weapons, including tanks and aircraft far outmatched by U.S. assets. | Limits conventional deterrence and combat longevity. |
| Personnel Shortages | Conventional military faces shortages of personnel, training and equipment. | Forces the reliance on less-trained, politically loyal militias (Bolivarian Militia). |
| Low Morale | Soldiers are reportedly only paid around $100 per month (well below the cost of a basic food basket). | Increases the risk of desertions in the event of a major conflict. |
The Catalyst: Counternarcotics or Regime Change?
The official justification for the significant military buildup in the Caribbean, including the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, has been to combat drug trafficking and target narco terrorists.
However many critics including the Venezuelan government, view the aggressive posture especially the deployment of US Warships as a pretext for regime change. The U.S. administration has signaled that it does not prefer a “boots on the ground” approach, instead hoping the military threat will prompt unhappy officers to rise up and remove Maduro. Tensions remain high as this strategy has yet to achieve its political goal.
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International Law Debate:
The U.S. airstrikes have also provoked a global debate on the legality of the operations. Luis Moreno Ocampo, former chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court (ICC) questioned the policy arguing “These are criminals, not soldiers.. we should do better at investigating them prosecuting them and controlling them but not killing people.”
Q: Is U.S. ground invasion (Boots on the Ground) imminent?
A: U.S. officials have not confirmed plan for boots on the ground and have publicly downplayed the chance of direct attack. However the current sailing buildup and the political rhetoric suggest the U.S. is maintaining maximum pressure to destabilize the regime.
Q: What is the significance of the Russian made equipment?
A: While the decades old Russian made weapons are technically inferior to modern U.S. gear their deployment coupled with Russia’s stated political support, raises the specter of a broader hybrid conflict, increasing the political risk for the U.S.
Q: What does “Anarchization” mean for civilians?
A: The Anarchization Plan aims to make Caracas ungovernable through targeted disorder.15 This would likely involve severe sabotage and street unrest, plunging the capital into chaos and putting civilians at extreme risk.
Conclusion: The True Cost of Conflict
Venezuela’s dual strategy of prolonged resistance and anarchization reflects the desperation of a weakened military determined to fight an asymmetric war. While the odds of a conventional Venezuelan victory are minimal, the “Swarm of Bees” analogy highlights the true objective: to ensure that any U.S. action, whether an attempt to overthrow governments / remove Maduro or a full invasion, results in a costly, bloody, and politically disastrous occupation. With tensions remaining high, the world watches a fragile standoff where the threat of chaos is the final line of defense.
Disclaimer
This article is based on expert analysis and media reports, specifically a Reuters report and commentary from former U.S. National Intelligence Officer Fulton Armstrong, concerning hypothetical Venezuelan military strategies (“Prolonged Resistance” and “Anarchization”) in the event of a potential U.S. attack.