3 Best WNBA Bets & Player Props for Thursday July 3 2025 Expert Picks
Discover the top three WNBA bets for Thursday July 3 2025—including the Aces 3.5 spread Skylar Diggins’ assists under and Kelsey Plum’s assists under—analyzed for smart wagering .
Thursdays WNBA slate offers a trio of strong betting opportunities From team spreads to sharp player props this breakdown targets three value-driven picks that blend data trends with game context Here’s where smart money should go tonight .
Las Vegas Aces 3.5 vs Indiana Fever
Pick Aces on the spread 3.5
Why It Matters
The Indiana Fever are riding an emotional high after their surprise win in the Commissioners Cup But that same adrenaline surge often leads to letdowns Historically WNBA teams have struggled immediately after Cup victories and this spot sets up for regression .
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To make matters worse for Indiana superstar rookie Caitlin Clark is expected to remain sidelined due to a lingering groin injury Without her offensive spark the Fever lose a critical edge against a surging Aces squad .
Las Vegas on the other hand is coming off a confidence-boosting road win over Phoenix and has found rhythm in their backcourt play They’re healthy rested and focused making this a sharp spot to back them on the spread .
Recommended Bet
Wager on Aces 3.5 at 110 odds FanDuel DraftKings
Skylar Diggins – Assists Under 5 vs Atlanta Dream
Pick Under 5 assists
Why It’s a Smart Prop
Seattle Storm guard Skylar Diggins enters this matchup against Atlanta with an assist line set at 5 Though she’s averaging 61 assists per game on the season her recent form tells a different story—dropping to just 48 assists over her last five outings .
More importantly Atlanta’s defense has been stingy when it comes to ball movement The Dream rank in the bottom third of the league in opponent assists allowed using their length and switching defense to disrupt guard play .
With Seattle spreading touches and Diggins deferring more in half-court sets this is a solid under play on a player prop that may be inflated by early-season averages .
Recommended Bet
Play Under 5 assists at 125
Kelsey Plum – Assists Under 5 vs New York Liberty
Pick Under 5 assists
Why This Prop Makes Sense
The Las Vegas Aces’ Kelsey Plum has a set assist line of 5 for Thursdays clash against the New York Liberty While her season average sits around 54 the recent trend is downward—just 43 assists per game over her last five .
The New York Liberty present a tough defensive challenge They rank among the league’s best in opponent scoring 799 ppg and are elite at pressuring guards forcing over 14 turnovers per game Their rebounding prowess also limits second-chance playmaking .
With Chelsea Gray handling more primary distribution duties and the Liberty’s disciplined defense Plum may struggle to generate the assists needed to clear this line .
Recommended Bet
Take Under 5 assists at 115
Summary Table
| Bet | Line | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Aces –3.5 vs. Fever | –3.5 Spread | Post-Cup letdown for Fever; Aces gaining momentum |
| Skylar Diggins Assists Under | Under 5 (–125) | Dream’s defense; declining assist trend |
| Kelsey Plum Assists Under | Under 5 (–115) | Liberty’s elite defense; Plum’s usage dip |
Betting Strategy & Insights
Context is Key
Situational awareness goes a long way in WNBA betting Indianas emotional hangover from their Cup win combined with Clarks injury makes them a vulnerable target Las Vegas meanwhile has regrouped and is ready to capitalize .
Defense Drives Props
Both Atlanta and New York have developed defensive identities that hinder perimeter creation For prop bettors that means value on assist unders for primary guards like Diggins and Plum .
Prop Bets Are Still Undervalued
While spreads get sharper with time player props—especially in the WNBA—often lag behind in market efficiency These two assist unders present data-driven edges that casual bettors may overlook .
Final Thoughts
For Thursday July 3 2025 the most strategic bets align with both game flow and recent player performance .
- Aces 3.5 spread vs Fever
- Skylar Diggins Under 5 assists
- Kelsey Plum Under 5 assists
These picks combine situational betting with analytical trends positioning them as high-value wagers in a light WNBA slate .
Always bet responsibly—and enjoy the game .